Reform Today, Restore Tomorrow: Why I’m Backing Rupert Lowe Over Nigel Farage

If you look at the polls today, you’d be forgiven for thinking the story is already written: Reform UK out in front, Nigel Farage cruising towards power, everyone else scrambling for scraps. I don’t buy it. My view – and I’m happy to be held to this – is that Farage will find a way to blow this opening, and by 2029 I expect Rupert Lowe’s Restore to be the party the smart money is siding with.

In this piece I’ll explain why I still see Reform as the right favourite for now, why my own money and attention are shifting towards Restore, and whether the Restore UK party are worth a bet at 16/1 for The Online Betting Club as an early, speculative position.

Where we are now: Reform on top, but not untouchable

Let’s start with the scoreboard. Reform UK are not just a media story – they’re genuinely leading national polling on most trackers.

A recent seven‑poll average has Reform at around 29%, with Labour on 20% and the Conservatives on just under 19%, Greens in the mid‑teens and Lib Dems low‑teens.
They’ve held roughly a nine to ten‑point lead since autumn 2025, after pulling clear of both Labour and the Tories around the 2025 local elections.
Even when individual polls wobble – a drop to 26% here, a narrowing of the gap there – they’re still consistently ahead of the old parties.

So yes, Reform deserve to be favourites on the current numbers. You won’t hear me argue otherwise. If you’re pricing the next general election purely on this month’s data, they’re the obvious front‑runner.

But the market has a habit of treating “today’s favourite” as if they’re immune to gravity. In politics, that’s rarely true. When one party suddenly starts drawing in ex‑Tory MPs, disillusioned voters and protest sentiment from all angles, they also inherit all the mess that comes with that.

That’s where my scepticism about Farage kicks in – and where Restore start to get interesting.

The Farage problem: high ceiling, low discipline

I’ve watched Farage for decades now. Every few years he becomes “the man of the moment”, reshapes the conversation, and convinces a big chunk of the country that this time, finally, he’s going to smash the old order.

The pattern is familiar:

He builds huge media presence and dominates the agenda.
He pulls in defectors, donors and disillusioned voters from the mainstream parties.
Then the questions start about personnel, policy detail, internal discipline and what actually happens if he ends up in charge.

We’re already seeing hints of that now. Serious coverage is beginning to ask whether Reform really are ready to run the country, whether the recycled Tory faces at the top undermine the “new politics” pitch, and whether the public trusts Farage with power rather than just as a protest vehicle.

Polls and commentary are picking up a few key doubts:

Some of Reform’s softer supporters agree with a lot of the policies but worry about competence and experience in government.
There’s a fear that they’re “the same old Tories with a different badge” – exactly the criticism their opponents are pushing.
When scrutiny ramps up, insurgent movements often lose their sheen – we’re already seeing Reform slip a little from peak levels in some series.

From a betting perspective, that’s a cocktail I’ve seen before: big noise, big lead, and a big chance of internal rows, tactical misjudgements, and candidate scandals right when it matters most. I’m not saying Reform will collapse overnight, but I am saying I don’t trust them to glide from here to 2029 without blowing at least one golden opportunity.

And when a favourite stumbles, the market doesn’t sit still.

Enter Rupert Lowe and Restore: the 10% warning shot

So why am I watching Rupert Lowe and Restore so closely? Simple: early indicators are already flashing that there’s space for a more disciplined right‑of‑centre challenger – and Restore are starting to fill it.

Restore commissioned a Find Out Now poll in late 2025 asking how people would vote if there were a party led by Rupert Lowe on the ballot. The answer was striking:

A Lowe‑led party recorded 10% national vote share in that scenario.
In a more recent poll, respondents were asked who they’d back “if a general election were held tomorrow and Restore Britain were on the ballot” – again, around one in ten said they’d vote Restore.

These aren’t fantasy numbers. They’re early, and they’re helped by name‑prompting, but they show something real: Restore can immediately register at roughly one‑third to two‑fifths of Reform’s current support, even as a new outfit.

On top of that:

Restore’s strategy is to act as an umbrella, working with local parties and community‑rooted candidates rather than parachuting in unknowns.
That structure, if it’s built properly, is tailor‑made for first‑past‑the‑post, where ground game and local credibility matter as much as national airtime.

10% isn’t enough on its own to make them favourites. But it is enough to prove they’re not just a Twitter project or a one‑man vanity hobby. It’s the kind of base that can grow quickly if a lot of frustrated Reform supporters – and ambitious Reform candidates – decide they’ve had enough of Farage’s style of management.

That’s exactly the scenario I see playing out over the next few years.

Are the Restore UK party worth a bet at 16/1 right now?

So, brass tacks: are the Restore UK party worth a bet at 16/1 for The Online Betting Club at this stage? For me, the answer is: yes, but only in the right role in your staking plan.

Let’s be honest about the price:

At 16/1 you’re looking at an implied chance of around 6% for them to end up with the most seats.
On today’s polling and structures, that’s ambitious. Reform lead nationally, Labour and the Conservatives still have deep local machinery, and the Greens are already ahead in many surveys.

So you don’t back Restore at 16/1 because you think they’re the most likely winner today. You back them if you believe:

Farage and Reform will lose discipline, fall out with their own people, or fail a big test.
Restore are building steadily underneath and can pick up voters, activists and donors who don’t want to go back to the old parties.
By 2029, the right‑of‑centre protest lane will have re‑sorted itself with Restore on top and Reform looking like yesterday’s vehicle.

If that’s your read – and it’s mine – then 16/1 is the sort of early price you take with full acceptance it might look daft for a while. For now, I see the Restore UK party as worth a bet at 16/1 for The Online Betting Club as a small, speculative ticket rather than a main position.

Think of it like backing an unexposed chaser in a long‑range ante‑post market: you’re not betting on what they’ve done; you’re betting on what they could become.

Why I expect the market to flip by 2029

Here’s the core of my prediction: Reform are at their most attractive point now, while Restore are at their most under‑priced. Over time, I think those curves cross.

A few things I’m banking on:

Reform’s “insurgency shine” fades
The more time they spend as the de facto opposition, the more they’ll be judged on detail, discipline and candidate quality instead of just attitude. That’s where the cracks already being discussed in serious commentary will start to matter.
Public trust issues bite
Polling and analysis already pick up that a chunk of voters are wary of giving Farage actual control of government, even if they cheer him from the sidelines. When people start to worry about what happens “the morning after” an election, “send a message” parties often lose momentum.
Restore hoover up the fall‑out
Every time Reform bungles a selection, rows in public, or looks like a recycled Tory club, Restore become a more attractive destination for anti‑establishment voters who still want a serious, organised alternative.
By‑elections and locals build the story
If Restore start nicking local seats and by‑elections – especially in areas where Reform were supposed to romp home – that will shift both media narrative and betting prices very quickly.

Add all that together and you have a plausible world where, as we approach 2029, the question isn’t “Can Restore catch Reform?” but “Are Reform finished as the main vehicle, and is Restore the new default favourite?”

That’s the gap between the odds today and the odds I expect to see in a few years. That gap is where the value lives.

How I’d structure bets if I were staking today

If I was putting my own money down on the back of this view, I’d keep it simple and honest with myself.

Short term (next election or two)
- Treat Reform as the rightful favourite in “Most Seats” and vote‑share markets, but don’t go mad at short prices.
- Keep solid positions where the evidence is strongest – Labour, maybe the Conservatives in certain scenarios – if you’re playing more conventional angles.
- Use Restore at 16/1 as a small, speculative addition – a ticket you can live with going to zero in the short term while you wait for the longer story to play out.
Medium term (watching for the turn)
- Track Reform’s poll trend: if we see more slippage like the recent dips in some series, that’s your first red flag.
- Watch headlines for internal rows, defections and public doubts about competence.
- Monitor Restore’s polling and local results: if that 10% becomes 12–15% with clear regional strongholds, the market will start waking up.
Long term (towards 2029)
- Be prepared to re‑rate Restore from “fun outsider” to “serious contender” before the odds fully reflect it.
- If they become genuine favourites by then, your early 16/1 tickets will either look brilliant in their own right or give you a fantastic trading position.

The key is discipline: don’t treat Restore as something they’re not yet. They are a growing, dangerous outsider – not the finished article. That’s exactly why the Restore UK party might be worth a bet at 16/1 for The Online Betting Club today, but only with stakes sized for a long game, not a quick flip.

Conclusion: Reform today, Restore tomorrow

Right now, the numbers don’t lie: Reform are on top, and the books are right to have them as favourites. But markets aren’t paid to tell you what happens today; they’re ultimately judged on what happens next.

My prediction is straightforward: Farage will overplay his hand, the shine will come off Reform as scrutiny increases, and by 2029 Rupert Lowe’s Restore will be the serious, organised right‑of‑centre force that both voters and bookmakers treat as the main challenger.

On that basis, I see the Restore UK party as worth a bet at 16/1 for The Online Betting Club only as a small, speculative ante‑post position – a bet on where I think politics is heading, not where it sits today. If you share that instinct, now is when you get your price, not when the rest of the market finally wakes up.

FAQs

1. Why are Reform UK favourites in the polls right now?
Because they’re leading national voting‑intention polls by several points over Labour and the Conservatives and have held that advantage for months, reflecting their current momentum.

2. What evidence is there that Restore has real support?
A Find Out Now poll for Restore suggested a Rupert Lowe‑led party could win around 10% of the national vote, and a later survey found roughly one in ten voters would back Restore if an election were held tomorrow.

3. Why do you think Farage will “mess it up”?
Farage‑led movements have historically struggled with internal discipline, candidate quality and translating protest energy into stable, governing‑level structures, and current commentary already highlights doubts about Reform’s readiness for power.

4. How could Restore overtake Reform by 2029?
If Reform lose polish under pressure while Restore quietly build local structures, absorb disillusioned activists and keep growing from their 10% base, they can become the more trusted right‑of‑centre alternative in the eyes of both voters and bookmakers.

5. How big should a bet on Restore at 16/1 be?
Treat it as a long‑term, high‑risk ticket: small stakes you’re comfortable losing in the short term, positioned alongside more conventional bets, on the basis that Restore could be genuine favourites by 2029 if this prediction plays out.